The spot resin markets were busier this past week; transacted volumes increased and prices
The spot resin markets were busier this past week; transacted volumes increased and prices
were mixed. Polyethylene lost about a penny and it looks like Polypropylene found it. The
overall domestic market was slightly softer, while export demand and prices firmed. Spot
resin demand was very good and noticeably stronger than in previous weeks. It is interesting
that prices along commodity resin supply chains moved in concert: Crude Oil, Propane,
Propylene and Polypropylene prices were all stronger; while Natural Gas, Ethane, Ethylene
and Polyethylene prices all fell.
The U.S. Energy markets moved in opposite directions this past week. Crude Oil for August
delivery recovered more than half of the previous week’s losses, adding $3.95/bbl to end the
week at $76.09/bbl. Natural Gas futures continued to drop, with the August contract falling
another $.285/mmBtu, to settle at $4.402/mmBtu on Friday. The Crude Oil: Nat Gas price ratio
expanded back to more than 17:1.
The spot Ethylene market began the week about a penny higher, but then gave back the gains
and more. After peaking at $.74/lb in April, spot Ethylene has actually pierced below the
$.30/lb level; July traded at $.295/lb on Friday and was subsequently offered a touch lower.
The forward months are priced at a modest discount to material for prompt delivery. The June
Net Transaction Price (NTP) of Ethylene was $.395/lb, down $.0525/lb.
Polyethylene prices dropped about $.01/lb this past week, with fluctuations seen between
grades. There was some evening up to do as June contracts settled a bit weaker than some
had expected. As in May, HDPE and LLDPE contract prices peeled off $.06/lb; entering July
still $.06/lb higher for 2010. LDPE fell $.04/lb in both May and June, holding on to $.10/lb of
first quarter gains. Contract buyers are looking for further relief in July; early producer
sentiment is that the extra relief was seen in June.
The spot Propylene market has been quiet for weeks, but finally posted a lone PGP trade at
$.5375/lb. This is a little lower than the initial July contract settlement of $.555/lb, which is a
rollover from the same price in June. RGP prices were basically steady this week at
$.4275/lb.
Polypropylene prices continued to recover, adding another $.01/lb this past week. The spot
market seemed to overdo it on the downside in early June; some over-zealous traders caught
with material were willing sellers at discounted prices, while buyers in general had backed
away expecting further erosion in July. The Polypropylene market began to recover when
Propylene prices stabilized and prospects of July weakness dissipated. PP contracts in 2010
were up $.22/lb through April, gave back $.20/lb between May and June, and will likely follow
PGP contracts steady in July.
Now that resin prices had given back a significant part of their earlier year gains, processors
are starting to return to the market seeking higher volume purchases. Although prices could
certainly continue lower, at this point it might be wise to keep ample (not massive) resin
inventories on hand, especially into hurricane season. As we often see in downward trending
markets, buyers that hold out too long to execute railcar purchases end up paying more for
last minute truckloads to bridge their supply gap, rewarding distributors with inventory.
After coming off so sharply the past couple months, and now finding some relative stability, it
is somewhat surprising that resin producers have yet to issue blanket price increase letters
for August. While it is still early in the hurricane season, forecasters have predicted a high
number of storms; it might only seem prudent to have a price increase nomination already on
the books – even if just in case.